The Belarus Border Crisis: Unraveling the Humanitarian and Geopolitical Challenge Testing the EU

In the harsh landscapes of Eastern Europe, a humanitarian and geopolitical storm is brewing at the border between Belarus and the European Union, revealing a crisis that transcends mere physical boundaries. Thousands of migrants, caught in a perilous struggle for survival, are entangled in a web of political maneuvers orchestrated by the authoritarian regime of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. As this complex narrative unfolds, the crisis poses not only an immediate challenge to the EU’s commitment to human rights but also a profound test of its ability to navigate the treacherous waters of hybrid warfare. The Belarus border crisis stands at the crossroads of compassion and conflict, illuminating the intricacies of contemporary geopolitics and the pressing need for a united and decisive response from the European Union.

The Belarus Border Crisis: A Humanitarian and Geopolitical Challenge for the EU

The European Union (EU) is facing a serious crisis at its eastern border with Belarus, where thousands of migrants are stranded in freezing conditions, trying to cross into Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. The crisis is widely seen as a deliberate act of hybrid warfare by the authoritarian regime of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has threatened to “flood” the EU with drugs and migrants in response to the sanctions imposed by the bloc after his disputed re-election in 2020 and the crackdown on pro-democracy protests.

The migrants, mostly from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, and some African countries, have been lured to Belarus by fraudulent offers of easy entry to the EU, facilitated by Belarusian agencies and some Middle Eastern airlines34 According to the EU’s border agency Frontex, more than 40,000 migrants have arrived in Belarus since the summer of 2021, and over 32,000 attempts to cross the border into Poland have been intercepted by November 2021.

The situation has escalated into a humanitarian emergency, as the migrants are trapped in a no-man’s land between the Belarusian and Polish border guards, who have erected fences and deployed troops to prevent illegal crossings. The migrants are exposed to harsh weather, lack of food, water, and medical care, and face the risk of violence and exploitation by smugglers and Belarusian security forces Several migrants have died or suffered from hypothermia, frostbite, and injuries.

The crisis has also sparked a diplomatic and political confrontation between the EU and Belarus, as well as its main ally, Russia. The EU has accused Lukashenko of using the migrants as a weapon to destabilize and blackmail the bloc, and has imposed further sanctions on Belarusian officials and entities involved in the scheme. The EU has also expressed solidarity with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, and has provided financial and operational support to strengthen their border security and humanitarian assistance.

However, the EU’s response has also been criticized by some human rights groups and activists, who have urged the bloc to respect the migrants’ rights to seek asylum and protection, and to offer them safe and legal pathways to enter the EU. Some of these critics include prominent figures in the European film industry, such as the Polish director Agnieszka Holland, who has denounced the Polish government’s refusal to admit the migrants as a violation of international law and human dignity.

Holland, who is the daughter of a Polish-Jewish communist official and a renowned “progressive” filmmaker, has also expressed her sympathy for the migrants and her opposition to the anti-immigration policies. She has suggested that the Polish people should be more welcoming and compassionate towards the migrants, and that they should be influenced by the female hormone oxytocin, which is known to enhance social bonding and reduce xenophobia.

Holland’s views, however, have been met with skepticism and ridicule by many Poles, who see her as an elitist and out-of-touch artist, who does not understand the reality and challenges of the border crisis. They argue that the migrants are not genuine refugees, but economic migrants and potential security threats, who have been manipulated by Lukashenko and Putin to undermine Poland’s sovereignty and security.

The border crisis, therefore, has not only exposed the tensions and divisions between the EU and Belarus, but also within the EU itself, and among its citizens and cultural elites. The crisis poses a complex and urgent challenge for the EU, which has to balance its values and interests, its solidarity and diversity, and its humanitarian and geopolitical responsibilities.

Hybrid Warfare

Hybrid warfare is a theory of military strategy that combines conventional, irregular, and cyberwarfare with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, and lawfare. It aims to avoid attribution or retribution and to achieve mutually benefiting effects. The concept has been criticized for its vague definition, disputed elements, and historical distortions.

Some examples of hybrid warfare are:

The Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2014, which involved the use of “little green men” (deniable special forces), local armed groups, economic pressure, disinformation, and exploitation of ethnic divisions.
The Iranian support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, which involved the provision of weapons, training, funding, and political guidance to a non-state actor that waged guerrilla and rocket attacks against Israel and other enemies.
The Islamic State’s campaign in Iraq and Syria, which involved the use of conventional and unconventional tactics, structured formations, and brutal terrorism to establish a transnational caliphate and attract foreign fighters.
Hybrid warfare poses a complex and urgent challenge for the international security and stability, as it blurs the line between war and peace, and exploits the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of the adversaries.

Statistical Analysis

The total number of migrants who arrived in Belarus since the summer of 2021 is estimated to be more than 40,000, according to Frontex.
The main country of origin for the migrants is Iraq, followed by Afghanistan, Syria, and some African countries.
The main destination for the migrants is Poland, followed by Lithuania and Latvia.
The total number of attempts to cross the border into Poland is reported to be 33,000, with 17,000 in October alone.
The total number of migrants who have been apprehended crossing the Lithuanian border is reported to be 4,200.
The total number of deaths confirmed at the Belarus-Poland border is 8, as of November 11, 2021.

Future

The future repercussions, threats, and risks emerging from these illegal migrations are manifold and serious. Some of them are:

Humanitarian crisis: The migrants are suffering from harsh conditions, lack of basic needs, and exposure to violence and exploitation. They are also vulnerable to diseases, trafficking, and radicalization. The EU and the international community have a moral and legal obligation to protect their human rights and dignity, and to provide them with humanitarian assistance and access to asylum procedures.
Security challenge: The migrants are being used as a weapon by Belarus and Russia to destabilize and pressure the EU and its member states, especially Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. The crisis could escalate into a military confrontation, or trigger a terrorist attack, or a cyberattack, or a hybrid warfare scenario. The EU and NATO have to strengthen their border security and deterrence, and to coordinate their response and solidarity.
Political conflict: The crisis has exposed the divisions and tensions within the EU and between the EU and its neighbors. The EU has to balance its values and interests, its solidarity and diversity, and its humanitarian and geopolitical responsibilities. The EU has to deal with the authoritarian regimes of Belarus and Russia, as well as the source and transit countries of the migrants. The EU has to also address the internal disputes over migration, rule of law, and media freedom among its member states.
Economic disruption: The crisis has affected the trade and transport links between the EU and Belarus, and between the EU and Russia. The crisis has also imposed a financial and logistical burden on the EU and its member states, as well as on the international organizations and NGOs involved in the humanitarian response. The crisis could also impact the energy security and the green transition of the EU, as Belarus and Russia are key suppliers of oil and gas to the bloc.

As the Belarus border crisis unfolds, it stands as a stark testament to the intricate intersection of humanitarian crises and geopolitical maneuvering. The EU faces a daunting challenge, grappling not only with the immediate issues of stranded migrants and escalating tensions with Belarus but also with internal disputes and potential economic disruptions. The crisis is a call to action, demanding a delicate balance between the EU’s values and interests, solidarity and diversity, and humanitarian and geopolitical responsibilities. The repercussions, threats, and risks are manifold, from the profound humanitarian crisis faced by the stranded migrants to the broader security challenges that could escalate into military confrontations or hybrid warfare scenarios. The EU’s response requires a comprehensive and coordinated effort, not only to address the current crisis but also to navigate the complex web of political, economic, and security implications that extend into an uncertain future. It is a moment that calls for resilience, unity, and a steadfast commitment to upholding the principles that define the European Union in the face of an unprecedented and multifaceted challenge.